Super Bowl 2015: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Analysis and picks: Super Bowl XLIX

New England Patriots (PK) vs. Seattle Seahawks

It's finally almost here. We've waited in anticipation for two weeks, listened to all the assanine story lines, and watched the media circus. On Sunday, the two best teams in the NFL this season will square off in Arizona to determine who will hoist the Lombardi trophy. Deflate Gate will no longer be a topic of discussion, as football will rule America for 3-4 hours.

Led by Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots will try to prevent the Seattle Seahawks from winning back to back titles. The line opened up as a pick 'em game. It had moved to favor the Patriots by 1 point, and now settled in to a Pick'Em on Bovada's site. This is the first time a Super Bowl will ever kickoff as a pick'em, unless the line moves in the next few hours.

So, onto the last game of the year. Phew. It's been a long and great season, both for MFC and for betting purposes as well. I had a streak of picking 9 Monday Night Football games correct in a row against the spread, and am going to come out positive for the year regardless of what happens today. However, I'm making so many bets, some with crazy odds, that I may hit the jackpot. But before I get into prop bets, let's talk about the game, the spread, and the over/under.

So I've said it a bunch over the past two weeks in Hawaii, where there are plenty of Seattle transplants, so I know the reaction I'll get. The Seahawks are overrated. There, I said it. I'm not just spouting Hater-Ade, here are the facts:

-Russell Wilson is not as turnover-proof as everyone says, he's just been lucky. He led the NFL in fumbles in 2014 with 5. Thankfully for the Seahawks, they recovered them all. Guess what, he's due to lose one and might not have one of his 300 pound linemen around to fall on it.

-Seattle's key to their defense is to force pressure with the front 4, play zone, and make the tackle. All good and grand, however, they ranked 20th in sacks this year with 37. Sure, one can say that they create pressure but don't always get to the quarterback, but with Tom Brady behind center I believe the Seahawks will need to hit him and sack him, not just 'pressure' him.

-ESPN had a cute segment this week with the Seattle Seahawks receivers. They were angry because they get no respect, well, they won't get much respect today either. Darrell Revis, Brandon Browner, and Devin McCourty are just as good as the Legion of Boom this year. Both offenses have little big play potential (sans trick plays) and I like the Patriots defense to outplay the Seahawks defense this game, especially with the Seattle secondary banged up.

With that being said, here's how I feel this game playing out,

1st Qtr: Like most Super Bowls, there will be some jitters. Both offenses will struggle to get anything going, we may see a few field goals here.

Patriots: 3

Seahawks: 3

2nd Qtr: Teams start to loosen up offensively. Both teams have a long drive offensively, but the Patriots finish with a touchdown, while the Seahawks settle for a field goal from the 17 yard line.

Patriots: 10

Seahawks: 6

3rd Qtr: Seattle forces a turnover on defense and scores a quick touchdown to take the lead and the momentum. They force a 3-and-out on the next Patriots drive and after a good punt return, end up with a 48 yard field goal. Patriots get the ball back down 6 and drive to midfield as the 3rd quarter ends.

Patriots: 10

Seahawks: 16

4th Qtr: The Pats continue their drive and end it with a 27 yard touchdown pass from Brady to Gronk. On the next drive, Marshawn Lynch breaks a 58 yard run to take the Seahawks down to the 12 yard line. Wilson finishes off the drive with a 7 yard touchdown scramble, grabbing the lead back. From here on out, it's all Patriots. They get a field goal on the next drive, closing the gap to 3. A Seahawks turnover is followed up by a LeGarrette Blount 2 yard touchdown. Seahawks don't have enough to come back with the time left...

Patriots: 27

Seahawks: 23

So, here's what we learned about that little scenario run-down. The Patriots are going to cover the spread and win the game. Also, the OVER will hit at 50, on a line of 47.5. The game will be close, and very exciting. I'm crazy-ready for it, and I hope you are as well. Your best bet is bet the Pats, and lay the points, whatever they may be. Also, play the over, because, let's face it, the under is for no-fun people.

Cheers and see you next season.

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